**Trader consensus at 97% for "No" on the US taking the Panama Canal before 2027 reflects the absence of any sovereign transfer or military seizure, despite sustained US pressure on Chinese-linked port operations.** Under the second Trump administration, rhetoric focused on alleged Chinese influence over the waterway and calls to "reclaim" it, prompting diplomatic engagement, security cooperation agreements, and US support for Panama’s January 2026 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated CK Hutchison’s concession for the Balboa and Cristóbal terminals. Panama subsequently seized those facilities and transferred interim operations to Western operators including Maersk and MSC affiliates, moves welcomed by US officials as advancing national security priorities without altering canal sovereignty. The Panama Canal Authority continues to manage transit under Panamanian control, consistent with the 1977 Torrijos-Carter treaties and the 1999 handover. By October 2026, Panama’s president publicly described the bilateral dispute as resolved, with ongoing cooperation on security and migration. Only weeks remain before 2027, and no legislative, executive, or military steps toward US assumption of the canal itself have materialized. Scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden reversal by Panama reinstating Chinese operators, new evidence of influence triggering escalated US action, or an unforeseen crisis such as a major security incident. Current developments, however, point to managed competition over port concessions rather than canal control.