US policy toward Iran in 2026 centers on countering the Islamic Republic’s support for terrorism, sanctions enforcement, and diplomatic isolation rather than endorsing any exiled opposition figure as head of state. The Trump administration has issued joint condemnations of Iranian activities in the Western Hemisphere and responded to reported strikes and leadership changes inside Iran without naming Reza Pahlavi for official recognition. Historical precedent shows the United States rarely extends formal diplomatic recognition to individuals outside a functioning government, and recent statements emphasize respect for Iranian sovereignty amid negotiations. Trader consensus at 96.6% for “No” by year-end reflects the absence of qualifying official announcements and the low probability of rapid constitutional transition before the December 31 resolution date. A direct, unqualified White House statement or verified regime collapse enabling Pahlavi’s assumption of executive authority could still shift the outcome.