The entrenched U.S. approach of engaging Venezuela’s interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez following Nicolás Maduro’s January 2026 removal drives the near-certain market pricing against formal recognition of María Corina Machado as leader by year-end. Washington has prioritized stability, energy cooperation, and structured reconciliation talks involving select opposition elements, while Machado remains in exile amid repeated failed return attempts and exclusion from key negotiations. Recent developments, including ongoing dialogue rounds scheduled through mid-October and U.S. statements supporting a gradual transition without a fixed timetable for her assumption of power, reinforce this consensus. Late shifts could still occur through abrupt policy reversals, successful diplomatic breakthroughs elevating her role, or rapid changes in the interim government’s standing before December 31.