The U.S. administration under President Trump has prioritized a phased transition in Venezuela centered on interim President Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s former deputy, following his January 2026 capture. This approach emphasizes stability, security cooperation, and energy-sector investment deals rather than installing opposition figure María Corina Machado, who remains in exile after multiple unsuccessful return attempts. Washington has coordinated with Rodríguez on governance and dialogue processes that largely exclude Machado’s faction, while Trump has offered praise without endorsing her leadership or accelerating elections. With only weeks until year-end and no signals of policy reversal, traders see formal U.S. recognition of Machado as leader by December 31 as improbable. Late developments such as a sudden diplomatic rupture with Rodríguez, major unrest forcing a pivot, or explicit White House endorsement could still alter the outlook before the deadline.