US-Iran nuclear diplomacy remains stalled after a June 2026 memorandum of understanding that ended direct conflict but produced no agreement on the disposition of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 damaged or destroyed enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving roughly 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—enough for multiple weapons if further processed—buried or unaccounted for in tunnels, with Iran blocking IAEA inspectors from returning to verify quantities or locations. Recent US demands for meaningful cuts in enrichment capacity, paired with new sanctions, have not yet yielded Iranian concessions on surrendering or removing the material. Trader consensus prices low probabilities for US possession by year-end because any transfer would require a verified diplomatic deal or high-risk military extraction, neither of which appears imminent amid ongoing negotiations.