Trader consensus around a 96% probability against US military draft authorization in 2026 reflects the absence of any congressional legislation or presidential action to reinstate conscription, which has remained suspended since 1973. The all-volunteer force continues to meet operational needs without broad mobilization requirements, even amid earlier 2026 discussions of tensions involving Iran. Recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions focus solely on automatic Selective Service registration implementation by late December rather than induction authority. Bipartisan proposals to eliminate the Selective Service System further underscore institutional resistance. A major escalation creating acute manpower shortages or formal war declaration could still prompt reconsideration before year-end.