**Recent indefinite extension of the US-Iran ceasefire by President Trump on October 17, 2026, amid stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and Iranian nuclear enrichment stands as the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Talks have featured repeated short-term truces and MOUs since June, including a 60-day framework that expired earlier, followed by sporadic exchanges of fire and US threats of large-scale strikes such as MOAB munitions. Iran has signaled openness to dialogue while rejecting nuclear concessions and asserting control over Hormuz shipping lanes, with US officials maintaining a naval blockade and pressing for verifiable limits on enrichment. Key upcoming factors include potential further diplomatic meetings, leadership dynamics in Tehran, and domestic US pressures ahead of November midterms. The situation remains fluid, with any breakdown in talks or new military incidents likely to shift probabilities on ceasefire duration.