President Donald Trump’s October 8 statement ruling out U.S. military strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms has anchored trader expectations that the current ceasefire will hold through that date. Ongoing diplomatic contacts via mediators, including references to “productive discussions” on issues such as Strait of Hormuz navigation and sanctions relief, reinforce the pause in direct hostilities. A prior interim agreement signed in June collapsed amid disputes over blockade enforcement and nuclear talks, yet both sides have continued proximity discussions without triggering renewed large-scale operations. The naval blockade remains active, but the explicit pre-election restraint and absence of major escalatory incidents in recent weeks support the 77.5% implied probability for continuation.