**Recent NRC actions granting construction permits for advanced reactors, including the TVA Clinch River BWRX-300 small modular reactor in late September 2026 after a 14-month review, have not shifted trader sentiment toward a "Yes" outcome.** These approvals represent construction authorization only, with separate operating licenses required later—typically years after site work begins and fuel loading readiness is demonstrated. Historical NRC timelines, even under recent efficiency reforms like streamlined environmental reviews and risk-focused oversight, show full licensing pathways extending well beyond 2026 for new projects. Early-stage applications, such as Holtec's phased Palisades SMR-300 filings or Blue Energy's initial submissions, remain in preliminary review phases with draft safety evaluations not expected until December 2026 or later. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 93.5% "No" consensus include an unexpectedly rapid combined license issuance or regulatory fast-tracking of an existing application before year-end, though current dockets and construction-to-operation gaps make such developments improbable. Traders price in these structural delays and the distinction between construction permits and operational authorization when assessing year-end resolution.