Trader consensus assigning an 89.5% implied probability to “No” reflects the rapid resolution of the sole 2026 intervention, when Commerce Department export controls in mid-June briefly forced Anthropic to disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all users over a reported jailbreak risk before the restrictions were lifted by June 30. Subsequent developments have centered on Pentagon supply-chain litigation and federal procurement bans rather than additional public-access orders, with Anthropic continuing to roll out updated usage policies and maintain broad commercial availability. Key near-term catalysts include any new frontier model launches that could trigger fresh national-security reviews, though the absence of further disruptions through October supports the market’s strong lean against another removal this year.