US-Iran negotiations and President Trump's evolving positions on Strait of Hormuz security costs shape trader views on whether Washington will collect transit fees or reimbursements by year-end. A June 2026 memorandum committed Iran to mine clearance and fee-free passage for 60 days while discussing future administration with Oman, yet Trump briefly proposed a 20% cargo fee in July before replacing it with trade and investment pacts with Gulf states. Recent statements affirm the waterway remains open without formal charges, amid US naval escorts, Iranian authority setups for potential services or insurance, and sanctions on related payment networks. Industry resistance, legal questions over international waterways, and preference for diplomatic alternatives keep implied probabilities low, though renewed tensions or enforcement shifts could alter the outlook before the resolution window closes.