The Trump administration has maintained a policy of restricting Cuba's access to oil imports through executive orders, secondary sanctions under EO 14404, and enforcement actions, including the June 2026 designation of state oil firm CUPET and September-October seizures of fuel shipments. Recent OFAC regulations effective September 30 further limit indirect transactions, U-turn payments, and private-sector banking access, while allowing only narrow, case-by-case humanitarian exceptions such as a Russian tanker delivery without altering overall sanctions architecture. Cuba's new hydrocarbons law, effective October 19, is viewed by analysts as an overture to Washington amid the island's energy shortages and blackouts, yet U.S. officials have reiterated no formal policy shift. These factors shape trader assessments of any near-term announcement easing oil-related sanctions.