**Ukraine has not reached any binding agreement to cap or reduce its armed forces by the end of 2026.** In late 2025 peace-plan drafts circulated during U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks, an initial proposal to limit forces to 600,000 troops was revised after Ukrainian objections to language allowing the military to “remain” at roughly its current strength of 800,000 personnel. President Zelenskyy and military leaders publicly described this figure as reflecting existing force levels rather than an imposed reduction, and it was removed as a strict constraint in updated drafts. As of October 2026 the war continues without a finalized settlement, Ukraine faces ongoing manpower pressures, and no treaty or accord has locked in a lower ceiling before 2027. Traders therefore assign a 95% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any verified diplomatic outcome meeting the market’s criteria.