UK GDP expanded 0.5% in Q2 2026 and 0.6% in Q1, following flat Q4 2025, with independent forecasts averaging 1.2% annual growth for the full year and the OBR projecting 1.1%. This resilient momentum, supported by services and recent monthly gains, underpins the 93.5% market-implied probability that the UK avoids recession in 2026 despite the energy price shock from Middle East conflict. The Bank of England has held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with inflation risks tilted higher but labor market slack and subdued demand expected to limit second-round effects. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of these data and central forecasts, though a sharper H2 contraction from sustained higher energy costs or weaker consumer spending could still challenge the outcome.