Recent quarterly GDP prints showing 0.6% growth in Q1 2026 and a revised 0.5% in Q2 have reinforced resilience amid Middle East-driven energy price increases, prompting the IMF to lift its 2026 forecast to 1.3% while most independent projections cluster between 1.2% and 1.4%. Trader consensus on the 1-2% band reflects this data-driven stability, tempered by expectations that higher long-term yields and inflation peaking above 4% early next year will weigh on consumption and investment without derailing the range. The upcoming Autumn Budget on 28 October and subsequent ONS releases represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities if fiscal policy or final quarterly figures deviate materially from current baselines.