Paddy Pimblett leads the market at 65.5% implied probability as the leading candidate for Ilia Topuria’s next lightweight bout, driven by an established rivalry dating to 2021 and recent public comments from both fighters. Topuria returns to training after his first career loss, a fourth-round TKO to Justin Gaethje at UFC Freedom 250 in June 2026, with a potential comeback targeted for early 2027. Pimblett, fresh off a first-round submission of Benoit Saint Denis at UFC 329, has repeatedly called out Topuria, highlighting size and reach advantages while noting the former champion’s altered mental state post-defeat. Lightweight scheduling— including potential Gaethje vs. Arman Tsarukyan and other top contenders booked—leaves Pimblett as the most available high-profile option. Gaethje (12.5%) and Tsarukyan (14.5%) trail due to title implications and uncertainty around the champion’s next defense.