**As of mid-October 2026, the 2026–27 UEFA Nations League A league phase has completed its first four matchdays, leaving several teams in precarious positions for direct relegation.** The two lowest-ranked fourth-placed sides will drop automatically to League B for 2028–29, while others face play-offs against League B runners-up in March 2027. Turkey, Serbia, and Czechia sit on zero points after four games in their respective groups, with Norway on three; these sides trail far behind group leaders such as Portugal, Spain, and France. November’s remaining fixtures will finalize the table and determine which two fourth-placed teams face certain relegation. Recent results have reinforced the gap between established sides and the bottom teams, shaping trader views on which national teams are most exposed heading into the final window.