Azerbaijan holds the strongest position in UEFA Nations League 2026-27 League D Group D2, reflected in the 79.5% implied probability, after securing five points from three matches including a 1-1 draw and 1-0 win over Lithuania plus a 0-0 result against Liechtenstein. Lithuania trails on four points while Liechtenstein sits last with one point, limiting its promotion prospects. Remaining fixtures—Liechtenstein hosting Azerbaijan on November 13 and Lithuania facing Liechtenstein on November 16—further favor Azerbaijan, whose superior goal difference and form in the early league phase underpin current trader consensus. Lithuania retains realistic upset potential in its final match but faces a steep climb to overtake the leader.