Iceland leads UEFA Nations League 2026-27 Group C4 with eight points from four matches, conceding just one goal while securing victories over Bulgaria and Luxembourg plus draws against Estonia. This defensive record and results in the opening fixtures have driven trader consensus toward an Iceland group win at 75.5% implied probability. Estonia sits second on six points with a solid unbeaten record but trails in goal difference and faces a tougher remaining schedule. Bulgaria and Luxembourg lag further behind on four and three points respectively after mixed early results, including losses to Iceland. The two remaining matchdays, including Iceland versus Luxembourg and Bulgaria versus Iceland, will determine final standings and promotion to League B, with limited time for major shifts in momentum.