Albania holds a narrow lead in UEFA Nations League Group C1 with 9 points after four matches, ahead of Finland and Belarus on 7 points each, while San Marino trails far behind. The tight trader consensus around 50% implied probability for the top contenders reflects Albania’s recent results, including a 2-1 win over Finland and victories against weaker opposition, offset by the two teams’ remaining head-to-head clashes on November 12 and 15. Finland’s superior goal difference and Belarus’s defensive record keep promotion paths viable for all three sides, with late November fixtures likely to decide the group winner and promotion to League B.