**TX-38 remains a solidly Republican district heading into the November 3 general election, with the open seat created by incumbent Wesley Hunt’s Senate bid.** Republican nominee Jon Bonck, who won his May 26 runoff 65-35, faces Democrat Melissa McDonough and Green Party candidate Alex McMenemy. Multiple nonpartisan ratings classify the race as Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting the district’s partisan lean and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments in the past month. With roughly three weeks until Election Day and limited new information on turnout or candidate momentum, trader prices have stayed dispersed across Republican margin buckets and the Democrat-win outcome. Upcoming early voting and any late-October polling or endorsements could shift probabilities toward a clearer margin range.