**Incumbent Republican Ronny Jackson secured the nomination with nearly 90% in the March 2026 primary, facing Democrat Mark Nair in the November general election for Texas’s 13th District.** All major forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s R+23 Partisan Voter Index and long history of large GOP margins. With filing deadlines passed and no contested primaries remaining, trader focus has shifted to the precise margin of victory. Current pricing centers on 35-45% Republican wins because historical results in this Panhandle district, combined with stable voter registration and turnout patterns, point to a comfortable but not record-setting advantage absent late national swings or unusual turnout. The low probability assigned to a Democratic victory or sub-25% margin reflects the absence of competitive polling or structural changes that would alter the baseline.