**Ruling party preparations and presidential rhetoric have advanced internal drafting, yet the 80.5% implied probability for no action in 2026 reflects the absence of the supermajority or cross-party consensus required for constitutional change.** President Erdoğan and the AK Party renewed calls for a “civilian constitution” during the October 2026 parliamentary opening, framing the year as a potential “constitution year” and citing the 467-vote “Terror-Free Türkiye” law as proof cross-aisle agreement is possible. The party completed major internal work in September and intends to present a draft to Erdoğan, consistent with earlier statements from the parliament speaker projecting possible adoption in 2026–2027. However, passage without a referendum needs at least 400 of 600 votes; the AKP-led alliance controls far fewer seats, making opposition backing—particularly from the CHP—essential. Opposition skepticism persists over links to presidential term limits and power consolidation, while recent political tensions, including opposition arrests and cabinet shifts, have not produced the broad legislative momentum needed before year-end. Traders therefore view meaningful movement on a new charter as unlikely before 2027.