**President Erdoğan renewed calls for a new civilian constitution during the October 1, 2026, opening of parliament’s legislative year, framing the effort as a test of democratic maturity and linking it to the recent broad consensus on the “Terror-Free Türkiye” initiative.** The ruling AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 326–333 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 400 votes needed to enact changes without a popular vote or the 360 needed to trigger one. AKP internal work on proposals continues, with reports pointing to a possible draft submission in early 2027 rather than an immediate referendum process. No formal announcement of a 2026 referendum has occurred, and opposition cooperation remains essential for advancing any package. These procedural and numerical hurdles, combined with the ongoing preparatory stage, underpin traders’ strong consensus that no referendum will be announced before year-end.