The primary driver of the 89.5% market-implied probability for "No" is the compressed timeline combined with the academy's current early-stage planning status. President Trump signed the executive order on August 28, 2026, creating a NASA-led Presidential Commission chaired by Administrator Jared Isaacman; the panel's 120-day report is due by late December, followed by state site proposals due October 26 and congressional authorization plus appropriations still required. Official timelines target groundbreaking no later than 2027, temporary facilities for an initial class of 300 students in 2028, and permanent operations by 2031—well after the June 30, 2027, resolution cutoff. "Begins training" demands actual academic instruction to commence, excluding planning, legislation, or facility work. No recent model runs, announcements, or legislative actions indicate acceleration sufficient to overcome these sequential hurdles within the remaining eight months.