Recent bilateral diplomacy has accelerated trader expectations for an in-person Trump-Putin meeting. A 90-minute phone call in early October featured a U.S. sanctions waiver allowing Russian diesel exports to ease global fuel prices, alongside discussions on Ukraine. Putin declined immediate trilateral talks resumption but signaled openness to future engagement. U.S. envoys have continued shuttle diplomacy, while Trump extended an invitation for Putin to attend the U.S.-hosted G20 summit in December. Kremlin statements highlighted potential for a sideline encounter at the November APEC summit in China. These developments, building on earlier calls and envoy visits, underpin the elevated implied probability of a meeting before year-end, though Putin’s territorial demands and battlefield posture remain key variables.