US-Iran diplomacy remains channeled through indirect talks and mediators amid an active conflict, with Tehran prioritizing sanctions relief, asset unfreezing, and Strait of Hormuz arrangements over direct leader-level engagement. Iranian officials have explicitly ruled out a Trump-Mojtaba Khamenei meeting, describing it as unrealistic while Mojtaba—elevated as supreme leader after his father's death—has issued statements rejecting US proposals and emphasizing Iranian red lines on nuclear issues and regional proxies. Trump has voiced openness to a future encounter, yet recent exchanges show continued alternation between negotiation signals and threats of renewed pressure, with no confirmed high-level bilateral summit scheduled. Mojtaba's limited public appearances further constrain prospects for in-person diplomacy before year-end deadlines. These structural and rhetorical barriers sustain trader consensus around low probabilities for a qualifying meeting.