Roy Charlie Arbaiza Corcuera of the Partido Patriótico del Perú holds an 87.3% implied probability in the market following the October 4, 2026, municipal election in Trujillo. Official ONPE tallies at over 99% of actas show him with approximately 26.6% of valid votes, well ahead of Víctor Robert De La Cruz Rosas of Podemos Perú at roughly 18%. Arbaiza's position reflects strong voter support for his party despite limited prior elected experience, questions over his residency outside the province, and a fragmented field of more than two dozen candidates that prevented any single rival from consolidating opposition votes. The low probabilities for remaining contenders align with their distant finishes in preliminary counts, while the market's high confidence in Arbaiza accounts for the narrow path for any reversal ahead of final certification and the January 2027 inauguration.