Redistricting in May 2026 transformed Tennessee’s 9th Congressional District from a long-held Democratic seat into one favoring Republicans, with the new boundaries projected to deliver a Trump margin of roughly 20 points in 2024 voting. Longtime incumbent Steve Cohen retired, leaving an open race between Republican state Sen. Brent Taylor and Democratic state Rep. Justin Pearson. Taylor secured the GOP nomination and a Trump endorsement, while Pearson won his party’s primary. Recent polling shows Taylor ahead by about four points, and early voting began October 14 ahead of the November 3 general election. Traders assign Taylor an 87.5% implied probability, reflecting the structural Republican advantage created by the map change and the limited time for Pearson to overcome it.