**Johnny Garrett (R) and Mike Croley (D) head into the November 3 general election in Tennessee’s 6th district following August primaries in which Garrett captured the Republican nomination with 43% and Croley took the Democratic side with 29%.** The open seat, created after incumbent John Rose pursued the governorship, sits in a district rated Solid Republican by Cook, Decision Desk, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Historical results show consistent double-digit Republican margins, reinforced by 2024’s R+26.5 performance. Trader pricing reflects this baseline, clustering most heavily on 10-25 point Republican victories while assigning Democrat Wins only 8.9%. Limited public polling and the presence of two independents introduce uncertainty around the precise margin. Factors that could widen or narrow the spread include relative turnout in suburban and rural counties, any national midterm environment shifts, and late-cycle campaign spending or endorsements.