Recent polling in Tennessee’s 5th district shows Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher leading Democrat Chaz Molder by five points among likely voters, a narrower gap than the district’s R+10 partisan voting index or the prior presidential performance would suggest. Molder’s stronger small-dollar fundraising and advantage among independents have kept the race within single digits, while Hatcher benefits from the open-seat dynamic after defeating incumbent Andy Ogles in the August primary and from the district’s structural Republican lean. Trader pricing on margin ranges clusters around a 9-12 point Republican victory, reflecting expectations that late-cycle turnout and any shifts in undecided voters could widen or compress the final spread before November 3.