The Justice Department maintains active probes into Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over allegations he and other officials impeded federal immigration enforcement through public statements and non-cooperation with ICE operations, as well as referrals from congressional Republicans and Vice President Vance for potential criminal fraud tied to oversight of state social services programs amid large-scale welfare and Medicaid misuse cases. Grand jury subpoenas issued earlier in 2026 were quashed by a federal judge who found insufficient links to criminal conduct and evidence of retaliatory intent. Walz testified before the House Oversight Committee in March and has faced no indictments despite multiple referrals and hearings. Traders assign low implied probabilities to charges by late 2026 or early 2027 due to the evidentiary thresholds for prosecuting sitting or former governors, judicial constraints on the investigations, and the absence of new formal actions in recent months.