The market's overwhelming 99.6% consensus on a $5–7 million opening for Aaron Sorkin’s “The Social Reckoning” stems directly from its actual $5.5 million domestic debut across 2,606 theaters on October 9–11, 2026, falling short of pre-release tracking that pegged the R-rated Sony drama at $7–8 million. Mixed critical reception (54% on Rotten Tomatoes), a tepid B– CinemaScore, and limited audience interest in the darker whistleblower narrative—centered on Frances Haugen and Mark Zuckerberg—contributed to soft word-of-mouth and underperformance relative to the 2010 original’s $22 million launch. A competing horror title, “Other Mommy,” dominated the frame with $27.5 million, further crowding out the mid-budget release. An upset into higher brackets would require substantial upward revisions to final Sunday estimates or unexpected holdover strength, while sub-$5 million outcomes remain improbable absent major reporting errors.