Mayes Middleton secured the Republican nomination after defeating U.S. Rep. Chip Roy in the May 2026 primary runoff, while Nathan Johnson advanced as the Democratic nominee following his own runoff victory. The open seat, vacated by Ken Paxton’s Senate bid, has drawn attention in a state where Republicans have held the attorney general office continuously since 1999. Recent September polling averages showed Middleton leading Johnson by roughly three points amid high undecided shares, though prediction market pricing reflects traders’ assessment of Texas’s partisan lean and historical Republican performance in statewide contests. The November 3 general election remains weeks away, with Libertarian Tom Oxford also on the ballot.