Chang San-cheng’s commanding position in the Taoyuan mayoral race stems from his incumbency as the KMT mayor, extensive infrastructure projects, and sustained polling leads of roughly 30–40 points over DPP nominee Huang Shih-chieh. Only two candidates completed registration for the November 28, 2026, contest, narrowing the field after Huang’s April nomination and September endorsements from President Lai Ching-te. Traders price Chang’s re-election at 92.5% implied probability, reflecting his governance record on industrial development and social welfare alongside the DPP challenger’s limited name recognition in this battleground municipality. A major scandal, sharp turnout shift among independents, or unforeseen national political development before election day could still narrow the gap, though no such catalysts have emerged in recent weeks.