Strong AI-driven revenue growth positions the 68–69% gross margin band as the leading market-implied outcome at 54% probability. TSMC’s record Q3 revenue of roughly NT$1.49 trillion already exceeded company guidance, reflecting sustained high utilization in advanced nodes like N3 and N4 for AI GPUs and ASICs. This momentum appears to offset much of the expected 3–4 percentage point dilution from the 2nm ramp and early overseas fab costs, keeping trader consensus clustered in the upper half of the official 65–67% guidance range. The October 15 earnings call will deliver the actual margin figure along with Q4 outlook, serving as the immediate catalyst that could shift probabilities if utilization or cost controls exceed expectations.