**Traders assign an 86.5% probability that the Supreme Court will not grant certiorari in an AI copyright case before 2027 because the leading disputes remain in district courts or early appellate stages with no imminent pathway to the high court.** The most advanced matter, Thomson Reuters v. ROSS Intelligence, produced a September 2026 Third Circuit ruling rejecting fair use for AI training on copyrighted headnotes, yet any cert petition is unlikely until early 2027 after rehearing deadlines. Other high-profile cases, including the New York Times and authors’ multidistrict litigation against OpenAI and similar suits against Meta and Anthropic, are still at summary judgment or discovery in lower courts, with fair-use questions unresolved at the circuit level. The Court’s March 2026 denial of certiorari in Thaler v. Perlmutter further signals selectivity on AI copyright issues. While a surprise grant remains possible, the compressed timeline to year-end and the pace of lower-court proceedings support the current market-implied odds.