Morena holds a commanding position in trader consensus for the State of Mexico Congress election due to its current control of the largest bloc in the LXII Legislature, with 36–39 of 75 seats. This structural edge stems from the party's dominance in the entity, alignment with the federal administration, and established territorial organization ahead of the June 6, 2027, vote that will renew all 75 local deputy seats and 125 municipal governments. Opposition parties including PAN, PRI, PVEM, and MC remain fragmented with limited recent gains in polling or internal momentum. The electoral process opened formally in September 2026, with Morena advancing candidate selection through surveys and coalition talks, while no major shifts have altered the balance in the past month.