The U.S. Drought Monitor for data valid October 6, 2026, shows Exceptional Drought (D4) persisting in Arkansas (2.48% of the state) and Idaho (6.72%), with smaller pockets in states such as Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, plus St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Recent heavy precipitation from remnants of Hurricane Polo and other systems drove two-category improvements across parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast while northern areas including Wisconsin and Michigan saw localized D4 expansion or intensification amid below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures. The National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, and USDA jointly produce the weekly map using station data, soil moisture, streamflow, and vegetation indices; the next release on October 15 will cover conditions through October 13 and directly determine market resolution. Forecasters note mixed October precipitation outlooks that could shift D4 boundaries before the period closes.