Recent polling averages place the center-right People's Party (PP) ahead of the ruling PSOE by 5–7 points ahead of the November 29 snap election, with seat projections showing PP and Vox together exceeding the 176-seat majority threshold in nearly all simulations. The election was triggered after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government lost parliamentary support for housing measures amid widespread protests. PP’s lead has held steady across multiple private pollsters since the early-October dissolution of parliament, while PSOE support has softened relative to 2023 results. These trends underpin the current trader consensus favoring PP as the leading outcome.