SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at roughly $1.8 trillion valuation drives the 71.5% market-implied odds, reflecting its record $75 billion raise, Starlink's multi-billion revenue run-rate, and post-listing trading near or above that level amid strong institutional demand. OpenAI's September 2026 announcement delaying its own debut until 2027 to address AI safety and alignment concerns leaves its eventual IPO market cap uncertain, with recent private valuations around $852 billion and bridge-round talks near $1.4 trillion. Traders view SpaceX's proven public trajectory and diversified launch/AI infrastructure business as establishing a higher benchmark than OpenAI's still-private path, though any acceleration in OpenAI's timeline or capability milestones could shift sentiment.