SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at a record $1.77 trillion valuation, now trading near $2 trillion amid Starlink growth and AI infrastructure expansion, anchors trader consensus at 71.2% probability of a higher IPO market cap than OpenAI. OpenAI's private valuation sits near $852 billion after its March round, with recent bridge financing talks targeting $1.4 trillion but an IPO pushed to 2027 over AI safety and alignment priorities. This timeline gap, combined with OpenAI's reported revenue run rate near $40-70 billion and ongoing losses, limits near-term upside relative to SpaceX's established public benchmark. Key catalysts include OpenAI's potential 2027 listing and any further private rounds that could narrow the gap before resolution.