SpaceX’s June 2026 IPO priced at $135 per share and delivered a record $75 billion raise at roughly $1.75–2.1 trillion valuation, yet the company remains ineligible for S&P 500 inclusion through year-end. S&P Dow Jones Indices reaffirmed its core criteria in June, requiring positive GAAP net income in the most recent quarter and over the trailing four quarters, plus a minimum 12-month public trading history. SpaceX reported a $4.94 billion 2025 net loss and continued quarterly deficits into 2026, with analysts projecting first GAAP profitability no earlier than 2027. At only four months post-listing, the stock fails both the earnings and seasoning tests. While a sudden rule change or abrupt profitability swing represents a low-probability tail risk, current market-implied odds of 97.4% “No” reflect the high barriers embedded in index methodology.