Darline Graham holds a narrow lead over Democrat Annie Andrews in recent South Carolina Senate polls, with averages showing roughly a 2- to 4-point Republican edge amid high undecided shares among independents. The race tightened after Lindsey Graham’s July 2026 death led to Darline’s appointment and August primary runoff victory, drawing scrutiny of her limited experience while Andrews benefits from strong Democratic base turnout and favorable national midterm conditions. Early voting begins October 19, with Republican groups deploying additional advertising and President Trump scheduled to campaign in the state. These factors sustain trader consensus on a close outcome, reflected in elevated probabilities for Graham’s margin falling in the 0-10% range and a meaningful chance of an Andrews victory.