Elevated global energy prices and a prolonged oil price shock around $100 per barrel are the primary drivers positioning South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation above 5.0% as the leading outcome at 78.4% implied probability. The South African Reserve Bank raised its policy rate by 50 basis points cumulatively to 7.25% through October amid these pressures, with headline CPI at 4.4% in August and forecasts indicating a Q4 2026 peak near 5.4% before easing. Upside risks from geopolitics, El Niño, and food costs have shifted trader sentiment higher than the SARB’s 4.4% full-year average projection. Key near-term catalysts include the October 21 CPI release and the November 19 Monetary Policy Committee decision.