South Africa’s annual inflation outlook for 2026 remains shaped by persistent global energy shocks. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and refinery disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict have lifted Brent crude toward $90–100 per barrel, driving sharp fuel price increases that pushed headline CPI to 5.0% in June before easing to 4.4% in August. The South African Reserve Bank now projects a 4.4% average for the full year, with rates expected to exceed 5% in Q4 2026 and peak near 5.4–5.7% before moderating toward the 3% target by late 2027. Traders assign a 76.8% implied probability to an outcome above 5.0%, reflecting concerns over second-round effects from transport costs, services inflation near 4.7%, and upside risks from El Niño weather patterns and potential rand weakness. The SARB has raised the repo rate by 50 basis points to 7.25% since April to anchor expectations.