Morena enters the Sonora state congress race as the incumbent majority holder with 11 of 33 seats, backed by its alignment with the state governor and recent internal coordination selections ahead of the June 6, 2027, vote for 21 single-member districts and 12 proportional seats. The process formally opened in early October 2026, with candidate registration and campaigns still months away, leaving ample time for shifts in voter coalitions or opposition consolidation among PAN, PRI, MC, and smaller parties. Trader consensus reflects this uncertainty, with multiple outcomes priced near even odds due to limited polling data and unresolved alliance dynamics between Morena and its potential partners like PT and PVEM. Key upcoming catalysts include municipal and district-level nominations plus any early surveys that could clarify paths to a legislative majority.