Morena holds a clear lead in trader consensus for the Sonora state congress election winner at 65.5 percent, reflecting its current majority in the 33-seat legislature alongside allies PT and PVEM, plus strong polling advantages ahead of the June 2027 vote. The party’s designated state coordinator and internal alignment processes position it to contest the 21 majority-relative and 12 proportional seats effectively, consistent with its control of 26 state legislatures nationwide. PT follows at 22.4 percent as a coalition partner, while PAN, MC, PRI, and PVEM trail with lower implied probabilities amid fragmented opposition. The electoral institute formally opened the 2026-2027 process in early October, with no major shifts reported that would alter the balance before candidate registration. Traders price outcomes based on these structural and polling dynamics rather than isolated events.