Ivica Dačić’s Factor of Stability list holds the clearest path to third place in the October 25 Serbian parliamentary election, with traders assigning it a 65.5% probability. Recent polls from Faktor Plus and others place the Socialist-led coalition at roughly 4–6% support, enough to clear the 3% threshold and finish ahead of Authentic Right, European Serbia, and most minority lists, while Vučić’s United Serbia list and the surging Student List occupy the top two spots. Dačić’s large Belgrade Arena rally and explicit presidential ambitions have reinforced the coalition’s visibility as a stability-focused option that continues to draw support from traditional SPS voters. Minority lists such as the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians and smaller ethnic parties remain below 2% in most surveys, limiting their chances of overtaking the socialists. Betting markets and partial vote projections confirm the same ordering, with only modest movement in the final weeks before election day.