**Ivica Dačić’s “Factor of Stability” list holds a strong lead in the market for third place because recent polls and betting odds consistently place the Socialist Party of Serbia coalition at 4–5 percent, above the 3 percent threshold while nearly all other non-leading lists sit below it.** The October 25, 2026 parliamentary election features a clear frontrunner in Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list (around 46–48 percent in late surveys) and a competitive second-place Student List (37–39 percent), leaving limited room for additional entrants. Dačić’s grouping benefits from its established alliance with the ruling bloc, a recent large Belgrade rally emphasizing stability, and polling trends that show it as the only other list reliably clearing the threshold. Smaller options such as European Serbia, Authentic Right, and various minority lists remain projected well under 3 percent, reducing their odds of securing third. Election-day turnout and any last-minute shifts among undecided voters could still alter final rankings, but current data and trader consensus reflect SPS’s position as the most probable third finisher.